인구구조 변화와 사회보장재정
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9788968271854
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| Publication Date | 2014/12/31 |
| Pages/Weight/Size | 160*234*20mm |
| ISBN | 9788968271854 |
| Categories | 사회 정치 > 사회학 |
Contents
Abstract ·············································································································1
요 약 ··················································································································3
제1장 연구의 개요 및 구성 ··············································································25
제1절 연구의 개요 ·························································································27
제2절 연구의 구성 ·························································································32
제2장 인구구조 변화의 현황과 전망 ································································33
제1절 서론 ····································································································35
제2절 인구변동 요인과 인구구조 변화 ··························································36
제3절 인구구조 변화의 현황과 전망 그리고 특징 ·········································38
제4절 소결 ····································································································79
제3장 노동력 감소, 임금 양극화의 경제성장 기여도 대체효과 분석 ················81
제1절 연구의 배경 ·························································································83
제2절 성장이론 및 성장회계 선행연구 ··························································84
제3절 우리나라의 과거 성장률 분해를 위한 투입요소 자료 ···························98
제4절 과거 성장률 분해(1990~2010) ·······················································107
제5절 가격변수법을 이용한 장기성장률 추계(2011~2050) ······················120
제6절 소결: 인적자본의 양과 질의 대체관계 ···············································132
제4장 인구구조 변화와 복지지출 전망 ···························································137
제1절 복지지출 전망을 위한 전제 ································································139
제2절 사회보장지출 전망(기본 시나리오) ····················································155
제3절 경제변수 시나리오별 지출 전망 ·························································165
제4절 인구 시나리오별 지출 전망 ································································168
제5절 연구결과 및 정책제언 ········································································174
제5장 인구구조 변화와 조세수입 전망: 소득세를 중심으로 ···························177
제1절 서론 ···································································································179
제2절 사회보장지출의 재원구조와 전망 ······················································180
제3절 동태조세·재정미시모의실험 모형(K.Sim) 구축 ··································187
제4절 인구고령화와 소득세수입의 장기전망 ···············································197
제5절 결론 및 한계 ······················································································205
제6장 인구구조 변화와 공적?사적 연금자산의 전망 및 운용전략 ···················207
제1절 장수리스크 헤징을 위한 국민연금의 자산 배분 ·································209
제2절 퇴직연금의 자산부채 분석 ·································································221
제3절 국민연금과 퇴직연금의 합계 소득대체율 분석 ··································236
제7장 인구구조 변화와 공적?사적 이전 분담실태 연구 ··································259
제1절 연구배경 및 목적 ···············································································261
제2절 인구고령화와 세대 간 경제 ································································263
제3절 국민이전계정을 통한 공적?사적 이전의 변화 분석 ····························269
제4절 소결 ···································································································296
참고문헌 ·········································································································299
요 약 ··················································································································3
제1장 연구의 개요 및 구성 ··············································································25
제1절 연구의 개요 ·························································································27
제2절 연구의 구성 ·························································································32
제2장 인구구조 변화의 현황과 전망 ································································33
제1절 서론 ····································································································35
제2절 인구변동 요인과 인구구조 변화 ··························································36
제3절 인구구조 변화의 현황과 전망 그리고 특징 ·········································38
제4절 소결 ····································································································79
제3장 노동력 감소, 임금 양극화의 경제성장 기여도 대체효과 분석 ················81
제1절 연구의 배경 ·························································································83
제2절 성장이론 및 성장회계 선행연구 ··························································84
제3절 우리나라의 과거 성장률 분해를 위한 투입요소 자료 ···························98
제4절 과거 성장률 분해(1990~2010) ·······················································107
제5절 가격변수법을 이용한 장기성장률 추계(2011~2050) ······················120
제6절 소결: 인적자본의 양과 질의 대체관계 ···············································132
제4장 인구구조 변화와 복지지출 전망 ···························································137
제1절 복지지출 전망을 위한 전제 ································································139
제2절 사회보장지출 전망(기본 시나리오) ····················································155
제3절 경제변수 시나리오별 지출 전망 ·························································165
제4절 인구 시나리오별 지출 전망 ································································168
제5절 연구결과 및 정책제언 ········································································174
제5장 인구구조 변화와 조세수입 전망: 소득세를 중심으로 ···························177
제1절 서론 ···································································································179
제2절 사회보장지출의 재원구조와 전망 ······················································180
제3절 동태조세·재정미시모의실험 모형(K.Sim) 구축 ··································187
제4절 인구고령화와 소득세수입의 장기전망 ···············································197
제5절 결론 및 한계 ······················································································205
제6장 인구구조 변화와 공적?사적 연금자산의 전망 및 운용전략 ···················207
제1절 장수리스크 헤징을 위한 국민연금의 자산 배분 ·································209
제2절 퇴직연금의 자산부채 분석 ·································································221
제3절 국민연금과 퇴직연금의 합계 소득대체율 분석 ··································236
제7장 인구구조 변화와 공적?사적 이전 분담실태 연구 ··································259
제1절 연구배경 및 목적 ···············································································261
제2절 인구고령화와 세대 간 경제 ································································263
제3절 국민이전계정을 통한 공적?사적 이전의 변화 분석 ····························269
제4절 소결 ···································································································296
참고문헌 ·········································································································299